Industry Trend Analysis - Weak Investment And Sluggish Construction To Restrict CV Demand - APR 2017


BMI View: We expect weak levels of investment and sluggish growth in Japan's construction industry to act as a drag on demand for both light commercial vehicles and heavy trucks in 2017. As a result, we forecast total commercial vehicle sales to fall 1.6% this year.

We hold a downbeat outlook for Japan's commercial vehicle (CV) segment, with a forecast contraction of 1.6% in sales in 2017. This will be underpinned by weak construction sector activity and muted levels of fixed investment, which will reduce demand for both light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and heavy trucks. As a result, we forecast LCV sales to fall 2.3% in 2017, while heavy commercial vehicle sales will expand by a marginal 0.6%.

Weak Investment To Drag On New CV Purchases

CV Sales To Fall Further In 2017
Japan - Commercial Vehicle Sales By Segment, Units
f = BMI forecast. Source: JAMA, BMI

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