Industry Trend Analysis - VW's SUV To Lift National Vehicle Production - APR 2017

BMI View: We now hold a bullish forecast for Portuguese vehic le manufacturing, averaging 10.0 % annual growth through to 2021, thanks to increased assembly investments and a buoyant export market. More specifically, Volkswagen ' s investments in adding a new SUV model to its local production line will provide the strongest support to total vehicle output in the country.

We have turned bullish on the vehicle production outlook for Portugal thanks to investment projects announced by the country's main manufacturers and the positive prospects for increasing exports to EU markets. We now forecast vehicle production to expand 9.5% in 2017 and to average 10.0% annual growth over our 2017 to 2021 forecast period. Breaking this forecast down, we anticipate a 12% expansion in car output, a 4% increase in light commercial vehicle (LCV) output and 2% growth in truck production in 2017. Over the full five-year forecast period to 2021 we expect car output to average 12.2% annual growth while LCV and heavy truck output will average 4.2% and 6.0% growth over the same period ( see chart below).

Breakdown Of Key Players

Investment And Export Driven Production Growth
Portugal - Vehicle Production By Segment, Units & % chg y-o-y
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Auto Informa, BMI

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