Industry Trend Analysis - Stronger Construction Sector To Fuel Uptick In CV Demand - MAR 2017

BMI View : Stronger growth in Pakistan ' s construction sector will lead to stronger than expected demand for commercial vehicles required to meet the industry ' s logistical requirements. As a result, we have upgraded both our commercial vehicle sales and production forecasts for our 2017-2021 forecast period.

We expect a stronger growth outlook for Pakistan's construction sector in 2017 to lead to bigger increases in commercial vehicle (CV) demand than we originally forecast in the year ahead. As a result, we are revising up our CV sales forecast to an expansion of 20% in 2017, up from previously forecast growth of 15.9%. In addition, we now forecast average annual growth of 11.8% in CV sales over our 2017-2021 forecast period, up from our previous forecast of 9.9% average annual growth.

Furthermore, with domestic producers mainly reliant on local market demand, this upward revision in our sales forecast also necessitates an upward revision of our CV production forecast. We therefore forecast CV production to rise 12.4% in 2017, up from our previous forecast of 7.2% growth for the year. This will now result in forecast average annual growth of 10.2% in CV production over our forecast period, up from our previous forecast of 9.1% average annual growth.

Stronger Expansion In Construction Sector To Raise CV Demand
Pakistan - Commercial Vehicle Sales & Production, Units
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: PAMA, BMI

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