Industry Trend Analysis - SSA Autos: Still Underperforming - MAY 2017


BMI View: At just 2.4%, vehicle sales growth in SSA will stay below potential in 2017, despite how far the market has declined in recent years. There will be bright spots, however, such as Botswana and Tanzania in the south and C o te d ' Ivoire in the west.

Vehicle sales in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will grow 2.4% in 2017, only marginally above our global forecast of 2.3% and ranking above only Europe in comparison with other regions. The SSA consumer will be faced with many of the same issues as in 2016, with weak currencies and high inflation hampering spending power, but commercial vehicle sales provide a bright spot in countries with increasing construction activity.

In terms of vehicle segments, there will be little to choose between them as we forecast passenger car sales to grow 3.4% and commercial vehicle sales to grow 3.0%. However, this suggests sustained weakness in the car segment, given that we estimate car sales to have fallen 8.6% in 2016 compared with a 4.7% drop in commercial vehicle sales. We do not expect passenger car sales to return to 2014 highs of over 735,000 units until at least 2020.

SSA Below Potential
Vehicle Sales Growth By Region (% chg y-o-y)
f = forecast. Source: BMI

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