Industry Trend Analysis - Philippines To Become ASEAN's Second Largest Motorcycle Market In 2019 - DEC 2017

BMI View: A healthy economic outlook, stable borrowing environment and manageable inflation will be the main growth drivers behind the Philippines overtaking Thailand to become the ASEAN region ' s second largest motorcycle market by 2019.

The Philippines will surpass Thailand to become the second largest motorcycle market in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region by 2019 according to our data series (which excludes Vietnam due to a lack of data availability). We forecast motorcycle sales volumes in the Philippines to reach 2.1mn units by 2019, up from 1.5mn units in 2017. In contrast, we forecast motorcycle sales in Thailand to reach 2.0mn units by 2019, up from 1.8mn units in 2017. We expect Indonesia to remain the region's dominant motorcycle market with sales growing from 5.5mn units in 2017 to 5.8mn units by the end of 2019.

We forecast motorcycle sales in the Philippines to average annual growth of 20% over our 2017-2021 forecast period, compared to average annual growth of 5.2% in Thailand over the same period. We expect this growth in the Philippines' motorcycle market over the next five years to be helped by a healthy economic outlook, manageable inflation and a stable interest rate environment. We expect this robust motorcycle demand to bode well for sales volumes of manufacturers Honda, Kawasaki, Suzuki, Yamaha and Kymco , which are leading brands in the country.

Philippines To Overtake Thailand In 2019
ASEAN - Motorcycle Sales, Units, mn
f = BMI forecast. National Sources, BMI

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