Industry Trend Analysis - MENA Autos: Solid Growth Hides Low Volumes - APR 2018

BMI View: The Middle East and North Africa will be the second strongest region for vehicle sales growth in 2018, but the seemingly robust increase of 7.2% overlooks the fact that volumes will remain below previous highs. Iraq will be the outperformer as reconstruction efforts generate demand for vehicles.

We forecast vehicle sales in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to grow 7.2% in 2018, which is an improvement on the 5.8% decline of 2017. This will rank MENA second to only Latin America in terms of sales growth in 2018, although we note that sales volumes will remain far below previous highs at 3.75mn units, compared with 4.28mn in 2014.

We expect commercial vehicle sales growth of 8.9% to outpace passenger vehicle sales growth of 6.8% as public and business spending starts to gradually pick up again in hard hit oil exporting economies. We also believe consumers will still be facing many of the pressures that were evident in 2017, with the added headwind of VAT in the GCC markets.

MENA Recovery Ranks Second
Vehicle Sales By Region, % chg y-o-y
BMI calculation

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