Industry Trend Analysis - MENA Autos: Iran Leads Growth In Bounceback Year - FEB 2018


BMI View: MENA will be the second-fastest growing region for vehicle sales in 2018, but this represents a bounceback from contraction in 2017, rather than new growth , and key markets such as the GCC will remain subdued. Iran will be the region's outperformer as pent-up demand for international brands is fulfilled.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will see a bounceback to positive vehicle sales growth of 7.3% in 2018, although this is from the low base of a contraction in 2017. Many of the key markets, particularly in the GCC, will still report muted growth in comparison with earlier years. Nevertheless, this turnaround will see MENA become the second-fastest growing market, behind only Latin America in 2018.

In contrast with 2017, when passenger vehicle sales performed relatively better, we expect the focus to shift to commercial vehicles (CVs) in 2018, with growth of 8.3% compared with 7.2% for passenger cars. This reflects a return to positive growth for those markets that experienced big contractions in CV sales in 2017; they will see demand slowly returning with the gradual improvement in economic conditions.

MENA A Solid Second
Global Vehicle Sales By Region, % chg y-o-y
f = BMI forecast

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