Industry Trend Analysis - Government Debt: A Threat To CV Demand - SEPT 2017

BMI View: A lthough Gabon ' s growing construction industry will support robust growth in commercial vehicle demand over our 2017-2021 forecast period, the government's growing debt burden will pose a significant risk to greater demand for commercial vehicles .

We believe that Gabon's rising government, Chinese and public investment in infrastructure development will drive robust growth in the demand for commercial vehicles (CVs). However, the government's increased debt burden poses a significant risk to greater growth in CV demand over 2017-2021. We forecast CV sales to grow by 5.7% in 2017 and average 6.4% over our 2017-2021 forecast period to reach a high of 1,180 units annually. Furthermore, our Infrastructure team expects Gabon's construction industry to experience real growth of 4.7% in 2017 and continue to average 4.8% over our forecast period, thereby supporting robust growth in CV sales over our 2017-2021 forecast period ( see chart below).

Debt Burden Will Increase Pressure On CV Demand

Construction Growth To Fuel A Robust CV Market
Gabon - CV Sales & Construction Industry Growth
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI

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