Industry Trend Analysis - Fiat's Punto Phase-Out To Drag On Output - JULY 2017

BMI View: Fiat Chrysler ' s decision to phase out Fiat Punto production at its large scale Melfi plant and the failure to announce a new replacement model for the Punto ' s production line from 2018 onwards will weigh on overall Italian passenger car output growth over 2018.

We have held our 2017 passenger car production growth forecast steady at 5.0% but have revised down our 2018 forecast to a weak expansion of 0.7%, down from 5.0% previously. We continue to project that Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) will ramp up its AlfaRomeo-branded output over 2017. However, we now identify that the end of Fiat Punto production at FCA's large scale Melfi plant in 2017 and the lack of a new replacement model for the Punto's production line from 2018 onwards will mean output at the plant is weaker that year.

In 2017, car output will be boosted by increases at FCA's Alfa Romeo-producing plant in Cassino. This plant will be the focal point of the planned revival of the Alfa Romeo brand and in 2017 the plant will greatly ramp up production of the brand's newly released flagship SUV, the Stelvio, which the company hopes will eventually account for up to 50% of Alfa Romeo-branded sales.

Moderate 2017 But Weak 2018
Italy - Passenger Car Production, Units
f = BMI forecast. Source: OICA, BMI

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