Industry Trend Analysis - Falling Mexican Confidence Not Derailing LatAm Sales - MAY 2017

BMI View: Latin America will be the strongest performing region for vehicle sales in 2017 growing by 6.2 % . Sales will be buoyed by a broad recovery in Brazil and Argentina as well as currency stability and trade policy improvements in commodity exporting economies like Ecuador. Mexico will also continue contributing to growth but at a slower rate as consumer confidence weakens in the fac e of economic uncertainty and rising fuel costs.

A comparison of our regional vehicle sales forecasts for 2017 shows that Latin America will become the fastest growing regional autos market globally as it emerges from the mire of 2016 ( see chart below). Over the course of 2017 this recovery will be driven by a rebound in the Brazilian and Argentinean markets as well as currency stability and changes in trade policy in other markets. As one of the largest vehicle markets in the region, Mexico will also continue to boost regional growth but at a slower rate than in 2016 due to falling consumer confidence.

We forecast vehicle sales in the region to expand 6.2% to almost 6.23mn units comprised of 6.0% expansion in passenger car sales and 7.0% growth in commercial vehicle (CV) sales. Highlighting the strength of the regional recovery, we forecast seven out of the 16 Latin American vehicle markets we track to grow at double-digit rates with only Venezuela's new vehicle market posting a contraction in 2017.

Latin America: From Laggard To Leader
Vehicle Sales Forecasts, % chg y-o-y
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI

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