Industry Trend Analysis - Export Market Growth To Drive Production Recovery - JAN 2018


BMI View: Kazakhstan's vehicle production will experience a strong recovery over our 2017-2021 forecast period through increased exports to China, Uzbekistan and the e merging Eurasian markets.

We have revised up our 2017 growth forecasts for Kazakhstan's passenger vehicle (PV) production from our previous growth forecast of 10% and 9,237 units, to our new forecast of 80% and 15,115 units. Furthermore, we forecast average annual growth of 32% over our 2017-2021 forecast period to reach an annual production volume of 31,342 units in 2021. We believe that this exceptional growth will stem from AvtoVAZ and its Asian partner, Asia Auto, starting to export Lada vehicles to China and the Middle East as well as lower trade barriers with Uzbekistan. Supporting our view is official market data which showed that PV production expanded 65% y-o-y to 11,375 units in the first nine months of 2017.

Emerging Eurasia Vehicle Demand Driving Growth

Recovery Well Under Way
Kazakhstan - Passenger Vehicle Production
f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI

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