Industry Trend Analysis - Construction And Agribusiness Will Drive CV sales - JUNE 2017


BMI View: Accelerating growth in the construction sector coupled with strong 2017 growth forecasts for agribusiness will help CV sales to overcome headwinds stemming from CAPEX cuts in the mining sector over our 2017-2021 forecast period.

Australia 's commercial vehicle (CV) sales growth will outperform passenger vehicle (PV) sales over our 2017-2021 forecast period because of a push for increased infrastructure expenditure coupled with an uptick in agribusiness. We forecast CV sales growth of 5.5% in 2017 and average growth of 4.1% over our forecast period. In contrast, PV sales are forecast to grow 1.0% in 2017 and average growth of 1.9% over the same 2017-2021 forecast period ( see chart below). The primary contributor to CV growth is light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales that accounted for 86.8% of total CV sales in 2016. We forecast LCV growth of 6.0% in 2017 and average growth of 4.1% over our forecast period. This growth in CV sales is driven by strong agribusiness growth in 2017 and renewed effort from the Australian government to increase infrastructure spending.

CV Sales Will Gain Support From Growth In The Construction Sector

CV Sales Growth Will Outperform PV
Passenger Vehicle And Commercial Vehicle Growth
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, FCAI

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