Industry Trend Analysis - Carmakers Showing Faith In UK Output Despite Brexit - MAY 2017


BMI View: Recent announcements by major manufacturers are buoying our resolve to hold our UK vehicle production forecast steady since the UK's decision to leave the EU. We stress that for at least the next five years, the production outlook appears stable but longer-term dangers still persist.

Our decision to maintain our bullish UK vehicle production forecast despite the country's vote to leave the EU is now being vindicated by recent announcements by carmakers. Key companies have shown their commitment to manufacturing in the UK with investments and labour union talks that appear to secure production at key sites over our full five-year forecast period to 2021. With this in mind, we continue to forecast annual average growth of 2.6% over our 2017-2021 forecast period and we expect vehicle production to reach almost 2.07mn units by 2021, up from 1.82mn units in 2016.

Toyota, Vauxhall And Nissan Standing Strong

Production Outlook Still Strong Despite Brexit
UK - Vehicle Production, Units & % chg y-o-y
f = BMI forecast. Source: OICA, BMI

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